Bitcoin is caught between geopolitical shockwaves and macro uncertainty. Here’s what’s driving the price - and how you can put your market thesis to work on Duelbits Predict.
Bitcoin is trading around $70,000 today – down roughly 44% from the $126,000 all-time high it hit in October 2025. The pullback hasn’t been driven by any single catalyst. Instead, it’s been a cascade: a U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, surging oil prices, an escalating global tariff war, and a Federal Reserve stuck on pause. The question on every trader’s mind isn’t just “why” – it’s “what comes next?”
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran – the broadest Middle Eastern conflict in decades. Bitcoin dropped from $70,000 to below $63,000 within hours. Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf allies, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Crude briefly spiked above $119 per barrel before settling around $100.
The oil shock is the key transmission mechanism. As long as energy prices stay elevated, the re-inflation narrative hardens and Fed rate cuts keep slipping further away. That’s the macro backdrop squeezing Bitcoin right now.
