Bitcoin’s onchain metrics are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the road to new highs will not be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have started taking $180 million in profits per day since BTC rallied to the over the $82,000 level on May 11 before dropping from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday.
“That is a moderate amount compared with past cycles and suggests current selling is controlled," they said, explaining that the concern lies in daily realized losses, which they said still average $479 million. ”In quieter periods, this figure sits closer to $200 million. Until losses drop to the $200 million band, the onchain recovery is not fully confirmed.”
Supporting this cautious outlook is a "gamma trap" identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma options positions clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially "squeezing" the price toward $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.
