Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Monday, stuck in range-bound conditions as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a sixth consecutive week of spot exchange-traded fund outflows continue to cap any upside from easing geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week, formally ending more than 100 days of conflict that had shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted a fifth of the world's oil flows.
At the time, the deal triggered an initial risk-on pop across markets. Indeed, bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached $66,230 the previous week, but the bounce gave way as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting dashed hopes of near-term rate cuts.
Warsh signaled a hawkish stance, and CME FedWatch now shows roughly a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting, with markets pricing in at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The DXY also recovered to the 100.6–100.8 range on the back of the Fed's tone, a headwind that has historically weighed on bitcoin.
Following last week’s macro news cycle, spot bitcoin ETFs logged net outflows for a sixth straight week, The Block reported Monday, with the scale of outflows narrowing significantly from earlier in the month but still failing to flip positive.
