Ukraine's Social Policy Minister Denys Uliutin told a public forum on May 7 that only 22 to 25 million people currently live in territory under Kyiv's control. Speaking at the "New Country" discussion panel, he said the situation was, in his word, "a catastrophe".
The figure came as a surprise even against recent projections. Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences, had put the population of government-controlled territory at around 29 million, down from roughly 30 million a year earlier. Uliutin's estimate runs 4 to 7 million below that. When the moderator pressed him directly, he gave his range: 22 to 25 million.
That gap between the two estimates has not been explained publicly, and Ukraine has not conducted a national census since 2001. Both figures rest on modelling and administrative data rather than a hard count.
A long decline, then a war
To understand the current numbers, the baseline matters. Ukraine had about 48 million residents when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. By January 2022, before the full-scale Russian invasion, that had already dropped to around 41 million. A result of low birth rates, emigration to EU countries, and an aging population. The war compressed further decline into a short window.
