People have lost more than $100 million placing parlay bets from Kalshi’s retail app and website this year, according to data stored for public access by the prediction market company’s partner Dune.
They lost about $117 million on parlays from Jan. 1 through April 30, Sportico’s research shows, with at least $35 million of that going directly to the exchange operator in the form of estimated fees. On April 26 alone, Kalshi’s parlay builders lost about $4.3 million.
Overall, Kalshi’s app and website bettors risked about $800 million creating custom multi-leg wagers during the first four months of this year. Their losses accounted for about 15% of that cost basis. In other words, for every $100 wagered, they lost roughly $15.
Kalshi’s exchange and third-party oddsmakers, some working on behalf of institutional firms like Susquehanna International Group, split the proceeds of the 15% “hold” rate extracted from retail bettors, who are identified in the data as “takers.” A “taker” is an almost-perfect proxy for retail here because in Kalshi’s app, people are only allowed to accept—or take—parlay lines, and not offer any themselves.
Notably, parlay “hold” rates are usually higher at traditional sportsbooks than prediction markets. At sportsbooks, all money from betting losses goes to one operator rather than being divided between an exchange and multiple oddsmakers.
