An estimate put the total explicit economic damage to Iran as a result of the war and blockade at $144 billion, but the true figure is believed to be much higher.Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a foreign policy think tank, released the report on Friday, providing one of the first explicit damage assessments of Iran’s economy. FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power senior research analyst Daniel Swift and FDD’s CEFP senior director Elaine Dezenski gave a wide estimate of $50 billion to $300 billion, with $144 billion being the most likely middle estimate.However, the model deliberately excluded uncertain or difficult-to-quantify factors, effectively underestimating the true economic damage to Iran, which is much higher. The model made its estimate based on hydrocarbon revenue losses and physical replacement costs.
Drawing on satellite imagery, U.S. Central Command battle damage reports, International Atomic Energy Commission assessments, reporting, and Iranian statements, Swift and Dezenski calculated the combined damage to military and strategic assets, economic infrastructure, and disruptions to the economy. Half of the total costs of direct damage were from nuclear facilities, missile and drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels, and air defense systems. The other part of the model came from analysis of lost revenue from oil and gas industry disruptions and the prevention of oil exports.
