For Asia Pacific governments, the US–Israeli war against Iran is a reminder that conflicts in the Middle East do not stay in the Middle East. Since February 2026, oil has surged past US$120 a barrel, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors have reportedly been redeployed from South Korea to the Middle East and US President Donald Trump has publicly criticised regional allies for their lack of active support.
These concerns have historical precedent. Research on US military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2000–2020 finds that when Washington becomes consumed by major wars abroad, many authoritarian and hybrid regimes in the Asia Pacific drift diplomatically closer to China. For non-democracies, a distracted Washington reduces the likelihood of a coercive US response and lowers the cost of accepting what China pragmatically offers — trade, infrastructure and diplomatic cover. Democracies stay close to Washington, reflecting the residual power of shared political norms and long-term credibility commitments.
But the Iran war is also exposing new pressures which place the very foundations of democratic alignment into question.
Washington has undertaken its largest military buildup in the Middle East since 2003 and US allies in the Asia Pacific are openly concerned about the redeployment of regional assets to the Gulf. Only months after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue that ‘America is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific — and we’re here to stay’, that commitment is being tested against the pull of another Middle Eastern war.
