The war against Ukraine initially came as a shock to Russia’s elites. No one anticipated the impact on their businesses and personal wealth, let alone their country’s place in the world.
Over time, however, the initial shock has been overcome. Russia’s system of power is structured in such a way that the overwhelming majority of its participants do not see themselves as independent political actors. Even if they did, they have no way to change Russia without jeopardizing their own privileged status.
The efforts of Western countries to force change in Russia proved contradictory. On the one hand, extremely serious sanctions were imposed on the economy, financial system, select industrial sectors and individual elites — although not all sectors of the economy were targeted to the same degree.
But this did little to affect Russia’s behavior, in large part because the West didn’t set out clear conditions that would allow sanctions to be lifted. Instead of splitting the elite, sanctions consolidated a significant part of Russia’s ruling class around President Vladimir Putin.
Many had hoped that after the presumed success of the war, some kind of fundamental agreement would be reached with Europe and the United States.
