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Yes, after I publish this, we’re going to get people jumping into the comments and complaining about us praising or promoting Chinese automakers and the Chinese government. But this is just about reality. The world is changing, fast, and in the auto world, things look set for some massive transitions. I’m going to split this into four sections below to make my case. After that, feel free to tell me if I’m wrong about where the auto industry is headed.
1. The future is electric, and Chinese automakers are far ahead of the rest. It’s easy to say the present is already electric, but until we go beyond 50% EV share, I’ll hold off on that claim. Electric vehicles will probably account for about 30% of new vehicle sales this year. But the technology learning curves and cost curves that have gotten us here are going to keep going, so EVs are just going to get more and more competitive and more and more popular. Chinese automakers are dominating innovation and sales in this arena right now, and I don’t see that changing. Chinese EV producers are often two or three stages ahead of legacy automakers from the US, Europe, and Japan on EV tech. So, as the EV industry grows, it seems obvious these companies will win more and more of the overall auto market.
