Reading Time: 2 minutesThis article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
October general election
Rising debt levels
Evolving bilateral relationship with the U.S.
Lula is seeking a fourth term in the October 4 general election, and while a clear opposition frontrunner has not yet emerged, potential candidates include São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flávio. Crime and violence will likely be top campaign issues following the police operation targeting the Comando Vermelho criminal group in Rio de Janeiro last October that left more than 120 people dead. Relations with the U.S. remain in flux: Trump imposed a 50% tariff in July, citing former President Bolsonaro’s trial for an attempted coup, prompting a strong stance from Lula that boosted the Brazilian leader’s approval. By November, Trump lifted significant tariffs on Brazilian food products, noting “initial progress” in trade talks. In January, Lula posted on social media that U.S. actions in Venezuela “cross an unacceptable line.” The World Bank recently highlighted Brazil’s progress in reducing poverty but noted that amid high and rising debt, fiscal sustainability remains a challenge.
