New Henley-AlphaGeo index shows investors shifting capital and residency plans as the Middle East crisis, energy shocks and market uncertainty reshape perceptions of safety worldwideA new global risk index says investors are rapidly reassessing where to place their money and secure residency rights as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran shakes energy markets, raises recession fears and deepens geopolitical uncertainty.The latest Henley & Partners-AlphaGeo Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index, released Tuesday, found one of the sharpest re-rankings of country risk in recent years. The report combines long-term measures of national resilience with real-time market signals and investor behavior, including country risk premium data from April 1, 2026, and Henley & Partners client demand trends from the same period.3 View gallery (Illustration: Shutterstock)“Resilience is a long-term property: it does not turn on a dime. Risk, however, absolutely does. Markets are repricing it by the hour,” said Dr. Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AlphaGeo.Traditional safe havens continue to dominate the top of the index. Switzerland ranked first, followed by Denmark, Sweden, Singapore and Norway. The report said the rankings reflect years of institutional discipline and market confidence rather than sudden improvements.But below the top tier, the shifts are more pronounced. Several emerging economies improved sharply, not because their fundamentals changed overnight, but because markets are showing greater confidence in countries seen as having credible policies and relative insulation from current shocks.India and the Philippines each rose 40 places, to No. 64 and No. 74, respectively. Turkey rose 32 places to No. 88, Mexico climbed 30 places to No. 66 and Morocco rose 28 places to No. 70.“The traditional narrative of ‘developed equals safe and emerging equals risky’ is breaking down,” said Dr. Tim Klatte, a partner at Grant Thornton China. “Investors are no longer thinking in regional blocs — they are assessing resilience country by country.”Countries exposed to conflict, sanctions or fiscal weakness were marked down sharply. Belarus fell 57 places to No. 117, while Bolivia and Ukraine each fell 28 places, to No. 134 and No. 131, respectively. Bosnia and Herzegovina fell 32 places to No. 89.3 View gallery Tel Aviv (Photo: Shutterstock)Among major economies, the changes were smaller but still notable. China rose six places to No. 31, the largest move among major economies. Canada fell four places to No. 15, the steepest decline among Group of Seven countries. The United States remained at No. 24, while the United Kingdom stayed at No. 19. Germany, Japan and Italy edged slightly higher.Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, chairman of Henley & Partners, said the data points to growing divergence between countries and regions.“No single country can provide lasting safety or deliver all the attributes investors seek — stability, access, opportunity and security,” he said. “In combination, however, they create something more powerful: optionality.”The report said the Iran war has accelerated the repricing of global risk, particularly because of its impact on energy markets and shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which a significant share of global oil passes, remains a central point of concern.“There is an unfortunate familiarity to the region’s heightened geopolitical risk picture, though the current conflict has raised the stakes significantly for investors, governments and globally mobile individuals,” said Dr. Robert Mogielnicki, a political economist specializing in the Middle East.He said the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to disappear quickly, even if a negotiated outcome is reached.3 View gallery The Strait of Hormuz (Photo: Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS)Henley & Partners said investor behavior is already changing. Since January 2026, the firm has received applications from more than 70 nationalities across more than 40 residence and citizenship programs.Applications in the first quarter of 2026, compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, rose for programs in Greece, Italy, Malta and Nauru, while Portugal saw a decline. Inquiries rose sharply for investment migration programs in New Zealand, Costa Rica and Turkey.In the Gulf, inquiries from UAE-based clients rose 41%, while applications rose 26%, driven largely by expatriate communities. Inquiries for UAE golden visas declined slightly.The report said Europe remains resilient in relative terms but faces mounting pressure from weak growth, energy vulnerability and political fragmentation.“Shocks today do not remain contained — they transmit across energy markets, financial systems and investor sentiment,” said Jean-Paul Fabri, chief economist at Henley & Partners. “Europe sits at the center of many of these transmission channels, which amplifies both its resilience and its vulnerability.”Henley & Partners said the broader trend is toward what it called “sovereign diversification,” with wealthy individuals and investors seeking more than one residence or citizenship option.“A single passport is no longer sufficient,” said Dominic Volek, the firm’s group head of private clients. “Investors are increasingly constructing multi-jurisdictional ‘sovereign portfolios’ — creating flexibility, security and control in an increasingly unpredictable world.”