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When the Iran war first erupted, I initially viewed it through the lens of recent history—expecting a familiar “price spike and fade” similar to the 1990 Gulf War, the 2003 Iraq War or even the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict.
In those episodes, oil prices surged but fell back quickly, and supply remained available to those willing to pay.
However, the deeper I look into the mechanics of the current crisis, the more it begins to resemble the structural shocks of the 1970s.
The key difference is the magnitude and nature of the disruption.
