CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten highlighted a “nightmare” scenario on Sunday for Democrats in November as he spelled trouble for the party after its big redistricting loss to Republicans in Virginia. (Watch his analysis below.)
Enten argued that the “drastic turn” in partisan redistricting wars in recent weeks has made it “fairly safe to say that Republicans will, in fact, win” those wars in 2026.
“But what exactly does that mean? Does that mean it’s a nightmare for Democrats? Well, sort of, but not really,” Enten said.
Under the current lines for congressional districts, Democrats would have to win the national House popular vote by less than 1 percentage point to take control of the lower chamber, according to Enten.
But, he explained, the party would need to win the national vote by a “significantly wider margin” — anywhere from 3 to 4 points — after factoring in all the decisions to implement new maps via redistricting.
