War has combined with battered economy to leave Tehran wondering how hardline it can afford to be
Iran may not be choking like a stuffed pig as Donald Trump predicted, but its economy is in serious difficulty as a combination of a massive war-damages bill, inflation, currency devaluation, unemployment and a contraction in oil revenues combine to leave the political elite worrying how hardline they can afford to be with their US negotiators. One estimate circulating in Iran’s media suggests the damage to the economy from the US-Israeli attacks is nine times the value of the Iranian budget last year.
The UN Development Programme has estimated that 4.1 million more Iranians could fall into poverty.
Trump made his prediction that Iran would choke on the basis that the country would soon run out of oil storage space because of the US naval blockade. On 26 April, he predicted that Iranian wells would “explode” in a “very powerful” destructive process starting in three days.
Behind this prediction was a belief that the US naval blockade launched on 13 April would prevent Tehran’s tankers from reaching the strait of Hormuz, depriving the Iranian regime of at least $175m (£129m) a day in oil export revenue. Once the oil was stuck inside the country, Iran would soon run out of storage, forcing it to close the taps. Such a closure would irreparably damage the wells.
