Betting odds of a recession this year reached an all-time low on Friday, following a resurgence in the stock market amid the Trump administration’s ceasefire talks with Iran and recent data pointing to an economy that appears to be more resilient than expected.
Stocks reached all-time highs as the labor market appeared to stabilize, despite stubborn inflation.
Odds of a recession by the end of 2026 dropped from 40% to 17% on Kalshi as of Friday, a record low for the oddsmaker, while odds also dropped on competitor Polymarket, falling to as low as 23%, the lowest level since early March.
A recession is signaled by two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product, a measurement of goods and services produced in a country.
U.S. GDP grew at a 2% annualized rate through the first quarter this year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday, a sharp rebound from the revised-down 0.5% growth to end 2025 and a reversal from potentially negative economic growth.
