The United Arab Emirates’ shock decision to leave OPEC is reverberating across global energy markets, exposing fractures in the powerful oil cartel as production quotas risk prompting other members to follow suit.
The country’s decision follows weeks of missile and drone strikes by fellow OPEC member Iran, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting its exports, putting pressure on the backbone of its economy.
“The UAE exit is another chapter in the changing membership of the group,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “If countries that are abiding by their quota get disgusted with those that don’t, we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel,” he told CNBC via email.
Countries, including Qatar, Ecuador and Angola have left the group in past years, citing frustration with quotas or shifting national priorities. Angola left in 2024, while Qatar terminated its membership in 2019.
The cartel has long grappled with uneven compliance, with some members historically exceeding their production quotas, including Iraq and Kazakhstan.
