French weather service alerts police to tampering after suspicious Polymarket bets
Users of weather forum say Paris temperature data may have been manipulated for wagers on prediction market platform
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Polymarket anonymity must end
Without identity checks, prediction market regulation will be toothless
The uses and abuses of prediction markets
Insider bets, low liquidity and regulatory gaps complicate efforts to turn wagers into financial tools
Betting on prediction markets has exploded over past two years
Value of bets soars from $100mn to $13bn a month
Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful
High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets
The failures of prediction markets are predictable
They can send wrong signals when trading is illiquid or when herd behaviour takes hold
Betting on risk changes the world
Prediction markets are the latest example of a disruptive new industry smacking into problems incumbents have long understood