MOSCOW, April 17. /TASS/. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is likely to be brief, why Washington reinstated sanctions on Russian oil, and Russia sees no prospects for direct dialogue with Ukraine without the US. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The ceasefire reached between Israel and Lebanon is unlikely to prove sustainable. Most likely, it will be merely a temporary pause in a protracted conflict, rather than the beginning of a comprehensive settlement. Experts note that the 10-day ceasefire announced with US mediation reflects a desire to reduce the intensity of hostilities but does not resolve key disagreements, primarily regarding the role of Hezbollah and Israel’s demand that the group be disarmed. Even the possible initiation of direct contacts between Lebanon and Israel does not guarantee a transition to long-term de-escalation under these conditions.
The ceasefire that has been reached will most likely be temporary and is unlikely to evolve into a sustainable deal, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute. In her opinion, Israel’s objective of disarming Hezbollah is not going away and will remain a central element of its strategy along its northern borders. "Israel would definitely like to separate the Lebanese front from the Iranian one and not link the ceasefires on these two fronts. Even if agreements are reached between the two countries' leaderships, Israel would prefer to retain its freedom of action against Hezbollah," Samarskaya told Izvestia.
