This report is from this week’s CNBC’s UK Exchange newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

If Britain should have learned one lesson from the pandemic and Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine, it is the importance of security of supply, whether in food, energy, fertiliser or other commodities.

The Middle East crisis suggests it was not.

Poor supply chain resilience may soon lead to shortages in refined oil products and, in particular, diesel and jet fuel (kerosene).

This is due partly to a big drop in refining capacity. As recently as the 1970s, the U.K. boasted as many as 18 refineries, but this has fallen sharply and more rapidly than in countries like France and Germany.