WASHINGTON, April 14. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that oil and gas prices could rise by 100% and 200%, respectively, in 2026-2027 if the US-Israeli operation against Iran is prolonged and leads to the most severe economic consequences, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.
As specified in the document, the fund has outlined three scenarios for further global economic developments, taking into account the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The first, most optimistic scenario assumes that the war will be limited in duration, intensity and scale, with its negative economic consequences largely dissipating by mid-year. The two other scenarios assume that the conflict lasts longer or expands.
Under the most adverse scenario, the shock to commodity prices is more severe and persistent, with oil prices rising by 100% starting from the Q2 of 2026 compared to the baseline established in the January World Economic Outlook, and remaining at that level in 2027 before dissipating in 2028, the report states. In this case, the average oil price would amount to about $110 per barrel this year and approximately $125 next year, IMF experts estimate. At the same time, they note that gas prices for Europe and Asia would increase by 200% over the same period.
