The Iran war shock is about half the size of Covid-19
An assessment almost six weeks into the latest global economic crisis
An assessment almost six weeks into the latest global economic crisis

What happened after the pandemic is an imperfect guide for the latest shock

The war is currently more likely to escalate than to be resolved by negotiation

Poorer countries face a triple whammy of crises in fuel, food and remittances

Sometimes crises do not blow over as investors might hope

Tehran has a strong incentive to keep the conflict going

There are lasting lessons about energy resilience to be learnt from this conflict