Coal mines in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, February 22, 2025. IRYNA RYBAKOVA/SERVICE DE PRESSE DE L’ARMÉE UKRAINIENNE VIA AP

Bit by bit, Moscow has pushed Georgia to position itself as a platform for circumventing international sanctions imposed on Russia. On March 20, the local authorities in Ukraine's Donetsk region – which has been occupied by Russia since 2014 and was annexed in 2022 – announced the signing of an agreement with a Georgian company for the export of coal, chemicals and metals. Aside from North Korea, no country has recognized this annexation, making any commercial ties with entities based in the occupied region legally illicit.

The contract was signed by Andrei Chertkov, head of the Kremlin-installed government in the Donetsk region, who welcomed this as a "first concrete step toward establishing full-fledged trade relations [with Georgia]," and an "opportunity to expand our commercial outlets and strengthen our economic position."

The opportunity is less clear for Georgia; after all, Russian troops occupy 20% of its internationally recognized territory in the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But unlike Ukraine, where Russia also occupies 20% of the territory, Georgia is governed by an authoritarian administration, covertly controlled by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is inclined to move quietly closer to Moscow.