Despite hostile rhetoric Trump let a Russian ship break his blockade – could it herald a Venezuela-style outcome?

When a sanctioned Russian oil tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, docked at Cuba’s Matanzas oil terminal on Tuesday, unloading 700,000 barrels of crude, it was not immediately clear why the ship had been allowed to pass through Donald Trump’s oil blockade.

In January, the US president had proclaimed on social media: “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” yet last week he told reporters, “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with it” – and waved the Russian ship through.

Then, on Thursday, came news that Cuba was releasing 2,010 prisoners. The government framed the move as a humanitarian gesture for Holy Week, but observers were quick to link the two events – and see both as evidence that negotiations between Washington and Havana are continuing.

The US oil blockade has caused an already stuttering Cuban economy to trundle into the ditch. Tourism is all but dead, after airlines from Canada, Russia, China and France ceased operations, and Iberia is leaving at the end of May.