This is what really causes recessions, a former top Trump White House economist says

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The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient lately, confounding forecasters who have insisted we’re due for a bust after nearly six years of expansion since the body blow from Covid. So when will the wheels finally come off?

There’s no way to know, former top White House economist Tyler Goodspeed says in a new book that will likely confound the legion of professional forecasters who regularly predict impending doom.

“Recessions are fundamentally unforecastable,” Goodspeed said in an interview about the book, “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It,” which comes out Tuesday. He was acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in the first Trump administration.

Goodspeed’s thinking is highly relevant to the war in Iran, but for now he’s asking readers to draw their own conclusions about it. Since leaving government, he has gone to work as chief economist for ExxonMobil. Given the sensitive nature of the conflict, CNBC agreed to not ask Goodspeed directly about the war.