In the two weeks following the outbreak of war Feb. 28, the benchmark price of crude oil rose 40%. Even if oil prices stop rising, we should see gasoline prices in the $4 to $4.25 range by early April.
That is the early economic cost of this war with Iran. It will not be the last.
We have made much progress against Iran's warmaking capacity. It has no effective air force and almost no air defense capacity or navy. Without an air force, Iran's army can conduct no meaningful attacks. The Israeli and U.S. air campaigns in the opening weeks of the war have killed more than 3,000 – many of them Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and government officials.
Thus far, the loss of life has been terrible, but far less than it could have been. That might change, and we should be unsurprised at the eventual cost of this war. I write that with tears of fear and sadness.
The end of the Iranian regime and its half-century of subsidizing terror would improve long-term growth prospects across the Middle East and save the United States billions of dollars a year in hunting terrorists. That would be a resounding achievement of arms and policy. Reasonable men and women know there are benefits and costs to war, and it is too often necessary.
