A war in the Middle East has suddenly made getting a mortgage even more expensive in a U.S. housing market already starved for affordability.
Like any global conflict, its repercussions ripple outward far from the immediate war zone. As KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk illustrated in a recent report, the war has set off a “butterfly effect” across the global economy.
Now, the war’s disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is being felt by homeowners in towns across the U.S.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.43% last week. That’s more than 30 basis points higher than at the end of last month—and its highest level since October 2025, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.4% as of Thursday.
Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said elevated oil prices, driven up by the Iran conflict, and the ensuing shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are contributing to the rate hike.
