Good morning. AI is already making workers more productive, but the financial results haven’t yet caught up.
“Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives” is a new working paper by researchers at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. It finds that while CFOs report productivity gains from AI, revenue-based evidence tells a more measured story—for now.
Based on surveys of nearly 750 executives, the research identifies a “productivity paradox.” Companies reported AI-driven productivity gains averaging 1.8% in 2025, but when researchers calculated implied gains using actual revenue and employment data, those gains were much smaller across all major industries—in both 2025 and 2026, the report found.
“It’s not really hitting the top line yet in full force,” John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business and a co-author of the study, told me. “There is some level of delay in here for sure.”
Courtesy of The CFO Survey
