Corporate America is talking about artificial intelligence more than ever, but a new analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals a stark divide between boardroom hype and macroeconomic reality.
In a research note analyzing fourth-quarter earnings, senior U.S. economist Ronnie Walker noted that discussions surrounding AI completely overshadowed what was fundamentally a strong quarter, with core corporate revenues (excluding the energy sector) growing by a robust 4.6% year over year. Amid this market fervor, Walker wrote, “We still do not find a meaningful relationship between productivity and AI adoption at the economy-wide level.” However, the data reveals a substantial hint of something bigger to come: a median reported productivity gain of around 30% for two specific, localized use cases.
Walker’s analysis adds some real meat to a debate that has rocked Wall Street—and many retail traders’ portfolios—as several viral doomsday essays about AI eating the economy trickled into actual stock market volatility. AI executive Matt Shumer and the top finance Substack, Citrini Research, both warned that AI will be much more capable of doing white-collar work, and much sooner, than many people think. Top executives including Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman (“Human-level performance on most, if not all professional tasks” will be automated); Amazon’s Andy Jassy (“You won’t need as many human beings”); and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon (“Now’s the time to start thinking about it”) added their voices to the chorus.
