“Typically,” Morgan Stanley observed in a big research note earlier this week, “headcount growth has been required for revenue growth but AI is changing that relationship.” It’s the latest puzzle piece in the paradox of productivity under AI: it seems to be making work more intense, not less, and despite all the doomsday predictions of massive job loss and an impending white-collar recession, many CEOs insist they are still planning to hire more people.
The investment bank, drawing on takeaways from its annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco, identified three distinct areas where AI is actually creating demand for workers—even as it threatens to hollow out others.
The findings arrive at a pivotal moment. Corporate America is increasingly signaling a “decoupling” between revenue growth and headcount growth, Morgan Stanley noted, with executives from companies like Snowflake and Shopify describing how AI tools are allowing them to do more with smaller teams. But Morgan Stanley’s analysts argue the picture is more nuanced than a straightforward displacement story—and that three areas of the labor market in particular are experiencing a surge in demand driven directly by AI.
