When one side, the US, says there are ongoing, productive negotiations to end the war and the other side, Iran, says "no, there are not", then who to believe?
What exactly is going on behind the scenes? Should we believe that peace in the Gulf is just around the corner? Or are both sides settling in for a costly, protracted war that will keep energy prices high, affecting the whole world right through the summer?
Messages are certainly being passed from the US to Iran, but indirectly, via intermediaries like Pakistan that enjoy good relations with both governments.
That, of course, is not the same as "negotiations", which might explain why an Iranian military spokesman has flatly denied they are taking place.
There is indirect contact and channels between the two sides - but a deal may still be a long way off.
