Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic won't return to normal for months, Kalshi bettors predict

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Prediction market bettors aren’t confident that a key oil passageway in the Middle East will reopen in the next few weeks, despite some hope that the U.S. and Iran might find a way out of the war.

Odds that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will “return to normal” before April 15 are below 25% on Kalshi. By June 1, however, odds shorten to more than 67%, and by July 1 to 76%.

Kalshi defines a return to normal as the seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls topping 60, as tracked by IMF PortWatch. Roughly $100,000 has been wagered in the market.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which some 20% of the world’s crude oil transited before the war — has become a flashpoint in the conflict. Iran has effectively halted trade between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea in response to U.S.-Israeli military strikes, including the killing of its supreme leader on the first day.