Emily Gregory, a small business owner and first time candidate for elected office, is looking to score an upset in a Florida special election on Tuesday to represent Mar-a-Lago in the state legislature.

Gregory is a Democrat running for state House District 87, which runs up the coast of southeast Florida and includes Palm Beach — where President Donald Trump’s home and resort is located — South Palm Beach and Juno Beach.

“It is the kind of district that fits just kind of outside the bubble of what we’ve seen Democratic over-performance in these targeted races,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in an interview with journalists from CNBC and MS Now. “We could win it. If we don’t win it it’s not going to be a surprise.”

Gregory is squaring off against Trump-endorsed candidate Jon Maples — a financial advisor and former college basketball player — in a district the GOP has controlled since 2022.

Republican Mike Caruso, who represented the area in the state House until his resignation in 2025, won reelection in 2024 by 19 points. But as Trump’s approval ratings dip and Democrats throughout the country are showing gains in special elections, Gregory and her supporters see an opportunity to play spoiler and potentially pick up a seat with major symbolic value.