Banks eye three ECB rate hikes this year as former Governor says he sees no stagflation — yet

Brokers now forecast multiple European Central Bank interest rate hikes this year as the specter of higher inflation and lower growth piles pressure on central banks to act.

J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Barclays all revised their forecasts on Thursday to anticipate future hikes after ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of a “significantly more uncertain” outlook with risks to inflation.

As expected, the ECB held its key interest rate at 2% and remained noncommittal on future decisions, but analysts are taking a more hawkish tone.

Barclays and J.P. Morgan expect as many as three rate hikes of 25 basis points each this year, with the banks penciling in increases in April, June and July, Reuters reported. This is a marked shift away from forecasts of unchanged rates for 2026 and would bring the ECB’s deposit rate to 2.75% by year-end.

Morgan Stanley expects ECB hikes at the bank’s June and September meetings, taking the rate to 2.5%.