Elevated oil prices may push up inflation in the coming months, which could lead to higher estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.
“Geo/political tensions are driving up the price of oil right now which will continue to drive up my estimates of the COLA,” Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, said via email.
Based on new government inflation data for February, the Social Security COLA may be 1.7% in 2027, according to Johnson. That’s up from Johnson’s estimate of 1.2% last month.
Separately, the Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan senior group, forecasts a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, unchanged from its estimate from last month.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is an annual change to benefits to help monthly payments keep pace with inflation.
