Millions of Social Security beneficiaries may see a 2.7% to 2.8% increase to their monthly checks in 2026, according to new estimates based on the latest government inflation data.

A 2.8% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may go into effect next year, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. That increase would push the average retirement benefit up by about $54.70 per month, she said.

Separately, the Senior Citizens League estimates the 2026 COLA may be 2.7%, pushing the average monthly retirement benefit up $54 per month, according to the nonpartisan senior group.

The average monthly retirement benefit is $1,955 for retired workers and their families, including spouses and children, according to August Social Security Administration data.

Those estimated increases would be up from the 2.5% boost to benefits that went into effect in 2025. The COLA has averaged 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.