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Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession this year as oil prices soar.
Kalshi’s market for whether the U.S. goes into a recession in 2026 jumped above 34% on Monday — its highest level since November, according to data from the platform. Late last week, the market had a likelihood for that outcome at under 25%.
Monday’s jump in recession odds follows the dramatic rally for U.S. oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark. Crude last passed that level in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Middle Eastern producers cut output in recent days with the key Strait of Hormuz passageway closed amid the U.S.-Iran war, raising concern about supply. West Texas Intermediate
