MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. An extended conflict around Iran may rattle oil markets, as Israel opens the second front by responding to an attack from Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the United States seems to be lacking a straightforward playbook for its Iran war. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Unless the military situation in the Middle East is resolved soon, oil prices may rise by another 30%, experts interviewed by Izvestia warn. Global oil supplies will soon fall sharply as navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped. As a result, demand for Russian crude is likely to grow, while the oil price discount could narrow, potentially boosting the ruble, the volume of reserves in the Russian National Wealth Fund and additional budget revenues. Alternatively, the warring sides may sign a peace deal in the coming weeks.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia say the conflict may either morph into prolonged hostilities or end within weeks, with a higher likelihood of the former scenario. According to political scientist and lecturer at the Faculty of Economics of RUDN University Farhad Ibragimov, the killing of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows that the situation is unlikely to be resolved soon. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has already vowed retaliation for what happened.
