Over the past week, a highly speculative piece of financial fiction has gripped Wall Street. Titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” the viral essay by Citrini Research and Alap Shah paints a catastrophic picture of an economy destroyed by artificial intelligence. Framing itself as a “macro memo from June 2028,” the piece describes a world in which the S&P 500 has plummeted 38%, unemployment has spiked to 10.2%, and the U.S. economy is trapped in a deflationary spiral caused by the mass displacement of white-collar workers.
However, Ken Griffin’s market-making giant Citadel Securities has swiftly dismantled the viral narrative. In a blistering new macro strategy report authored by Frank Flight, Citadel systematically debunks Citrini’s doomsday scenario, using real-time economic data to prove that the so-called intelligence crisis is actually rooted in a profound misunderstanding of macroeconomic fundamentals and technological adoption curves.
Viral ‘doomsday’ narrative
To understand Citadel’s takedown, one must first understand the hysteria Citrini, a macroeconomic analysis research firm founded in 2023 by James van Geelen, attempted to incite. Citrini’s Substack essay imagines a “human intelligence displacement spiral”—a negative feedback loop with no natural brake. In this hypothetical future, AI agents rapidly replace software engineers, financial advisors, and middle management. Companies lay off workers to expand margins, reinvesting those savings into more AI compute, which only accelerates further layoffs.
