The dollar declined against foreign currencies, stocks in Asia and Europe broadly sold off, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.22% before the open in New York as investors began to realize that the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff decision, and President Donald Trump’s reaction to it, is going to be more complex than traders initially thought. Goldman Sachs also reported that its in-house “Risk Appetite Indicator” had sunk back from its recent peak.In that context, investors fled—again—to the safe haven of gold, which rose 1.81% this morning and looked to be making an attempt at a new record high.
At first glance, ending the tariffs looked broadly good for stocks because it makes international trade easier and cheaper for companies. Unsurprisingly, the S&P 500 closed up 0.69% on Friday.
But after Trump said he would propose new tariffs of 10%, and then changed his mind and made it 15%, analysts began to realize that some of the things Trump might do next could be more extreme than his “Liberation Day” tariffs and will certainly be more complex.
As UBS’s Paul Donovan put it, “Welcome back uncertainty.”
BNP analyst William Bratton published a research note summarizing Trump’s options. “Some of these could be highly punitive,” he said:
