ALULA: Global trade is not retreating into deglobalization despite geopolitical shocks, but is instead undergoing a structural reshuffling led by US-China tensions, according to Harvard University economist Pol Antras.
Presenting research at the AlUla Emerging Market Economies Conference, Antras said there is no evidence that countries are systematically turning inward. Instead, trade flows are being redirected across markets, creating winners and losers depending on export structure and exposure to Chinese competition.
This comes as debate intensifies over whether supply-chain disruptions, industrial policy and rising trade barriers signal the end of globalization after decades of expansion.
Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the event, Antras said: “I think the right way to view it is more a reorganization, where things are moving from some countries to others rather than a general trend where countries are becoming more inward looking, in a sense of producers selling more of their stuff domestically than internationally, or consumers buying more domestic products than foreign products.”
He said a change of that scale has not yet happened, which is important to recognize when navigating the reshuffling — a shift his research shows is driven by Chinese producers redirecting sales away from the US toward other economies.
