Despite a flurry of aggressive policy announcements from the White House aimed at unlocking the frozen U.S. housing market, strategists at Morgan Stanley argued this month that the measures won’t significantly alter the landscape for prospective homebuyers in 2026.
In a research note released on Jan. 18, strategists James Egan and Jay Bacow characterized President Trump’s recent directives as only “modestly helpful for homeowner affordability,” warning that they ultimately amount to a marginal adjustment rather than a market cure.
The centerpiece of the administration’s strategy involves a directive for government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The immediate market reaction was positive, the bank noted, as mortgage spreads tightened by 15 basis points, pushing the 30-year mortgage rate below 6% for the first time since 2022.
However, Egan and Bacow wrote that they believe the market has already efficiently priced in Trump’s intervention. While acknowledging the drop in rates is directionally positive, they argued that the sheer volume of existing low-rate mortgages renders the policy less effective than hoped.
