Economy weathered a fraught geopolitical landscape to reach 5% target but structural challenges at home ‘are not going away’, say experts
Chinese authorities can say they hit their growth goals last year, but Donald Trump’s ongoing trade aggression, a slow-motion housing market collapse and unhappy consumers remain major challenges for the world’s second-largest economy.
Data released on Monday showed the Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025, steady on the year before and hitting the official target of “around” that pace.
Experts had expected punitive US tariffs would deliver a major blow to China’s economic performance in 2025. Instead, the country defied expectations by recording its largest-ever trade surplus (US$1.2tn) as it found alternative markets for its products and American tariffs proved less punitive than originally threatened.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s chief economist, Luke Yeaman, said navigating a fraught geopolitical landscape remained a “major wildcard”, but that China’s economy should continue to grow through 2026.
