emographic trends evolve slowly by nature, but at times, statistics reveal historic shifts in human behavior. Such is the case with the 2025 demographic report republished on Tuesday, January 13, by France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). For the first time since the end of World War II, the annual study shows that deaths outnumbered births. France has not recorded so few births since 1942.
Beyond its symbolic weight, this crossing of curves highlights the aging of the country's population. Soon, the number of people over 65 will surpass those under 20. Fourteen years after the birthrate began to decline, France – long an exception in Europe for its demographic vitality – now has a fertility rate of just 1.56 children per woman, its lowest since 1918 and far below the replacement level. Immigration continues to be the main driver of demographic growth.
While this demographic shock is unprecedented in France, it is part of a global trend of declining birth rates tied to development levels. This phenomenon, striking everywhere except Africa, confirms that economic growth and improved living standards, after initially boosting population growth – particularly by reducing mortality – now produce the opposite effect. This reversal stems from both changing lifestyles and mindsets as well as growing material challenges and concerns about the future of the world.
