F
rance has long stood out as Europe's demographic exception. While most of its neighbors have experienced a sharp decline in fertility rates, French birth rates seemed resilient, fueling hopes that the country might avoid a demographic winter. But as the numbers have worsened, the warnings have multiplied. On Tuesday, December 2, France's Court of Audit contributed to this necessary wake-up call by publishing a report on the impact of demographic trends on public finances.
For the first time since the end of World War II, France is expected to record a negative natural balance in 2025, with more deaths than births. As the number of children per woman continues to fall below the replacement level, the population is aging steadily due to rising life expectancy. According to INSEE, France's national statistics office, people over 65 could represent nearly one-third of the population by 2070. This demographic slowdown will have major consequences for public finances, the sustainability of the welfare system, the health and long-term care sectors – where demand will surge – and the available workforce, which is at risk of shrinking.
With fewer working-age people – meaning fewer social contributions – rising age-related public spending, and anemic growth potential, France faces an unprecedented challenge. In early 2024, President Emmanuel Macron called for a "demographic rearmament." The phrasing may have seemed clumsy, but the intention is commendable. Still, there should be no illusions: Even when pursued through authoritarian measures in some countries, pro-natalist policies have struggled to achieve the desired results.
