Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, in Tehran, January 3, 2026. BUREAU DU GUIDE SUPRÊME IRANIEN VIA AP
Hamzeh Safavi, a political analyst based in Tehran and the son of one of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's top military advisors, believes that a targeted US operation against Khamenei is unlikely. However, he acknowledges that some members of Iran's elite are considering a succession scenario that could steer the country's politics in a more pragmatic direction.
After the abduction of Nicolas Maduro, what has changed in the Iranian government's analysis?
The recent publication of the US National Security Strategy document clearly states Washington's intention to revive the Monroe Doctrine [which considers Latin America as the US's exclusive sphere of influence], with what some call a "Trump corollary." Europe has been pushed out of Latin America, and now the aim is also to push out Iran, China and Russia. This means that South America has once again become a major geopolitical priority for the US, including through military, security and economic means, which are now legitimized by this document. In this context, the operation against Venezuela appears consistent. In contrast, the document no longer presents the Middle East as a US priority, and the Iranian threat is now considered weak. That does not mean that a war against Iran is impossible, but such a war would clearly run counter to current US doctrine.
