Since early 2022, just before widespread AI-hype, U.S. job-openings as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have fallen from roughly 12.1 million to about 7.7 million, a decline of approximately 36%. Over the same period, the S&P 500’s total return (price plus dividends) is roughly 48%, reflecting strong equity markets.
Conventional wisdom would tell you a booming stock market should create more jobs, not fewer. But it’s hard to ignore that there are larger forces at play, and a potential harbinger of how companies are starting to view their workforces. According to a new report from the Institute for Corporate Productivity (i4cp), 2026 will be the year that large companies stop treating AI merely as a productivity tool and start wielding it as a strategic lever for workforce restructuring.
That’s a far cry from the typical corporate talking points. How many times have we heard executives tout AI as a thought partner, a collaborator, a productivity accelerator? Or as a catalyst for upskilling and repurposing people? And yet, we’re already seeing evidence of this trend. In 2025 alone, UPS cut 48,000, Amazon eliminated 14,000 jobs, and Verizon announced plans to lay off 15,000 employees. The reason for all these cuts? While restructuring, the need for different skills, and business optimization are all frequently cited, increasingly AI is as well. In fact, a World Economic Forum survey found 41% of companies worldwide expect to reduce their workforces over the next five years because of the rise of AI. Reduction doesn’t just mean layoffs; AI is also being used as a reason hiring has slowed in many companies.
