A shortage of memory chips fueled by artificial intelligence players is likely to cause a price rise in smartphones in 2026 and a drop in shipments, Counterpoint Research said in a note on Tuesday.

Smartphone shipments could fall 2.1% in 2026, according to Counterpoint, versus a previous outlook of flat-to-positive growth.

Shipments do not equate to sales but are a measure of demand as they track the number of devices being sent to sales channels like stores.

Meanwhile, the average selling price of smartphones could jump 6.9% year-on-year in 2026, Counterpoint said, in comparison to a previous forecast of a 3.6% rise.

This is being driven by specific chip shortages and bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain, which are pushing up component prices.