Enjoy your Fed interest rate cut today—it may be the last one for a while. There is a 90% certainty that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce a 0.25% cut to the base rate this afternoon, bringing it down to the 3.5% level, according to speculators on the CME FedWatch Fed funds futures index. But after that, the FedWatch index is indicating no certainty for any further cuts in 2026.
Today’s cut is priced in at level of certainty approaching 90%. But here are what the levels of certainty for keeping the rate at 3.5% look like for 2026, per FedWatch:
January: 72.2%
March: 55.8%
April: 47.6%
