Asian stocks were down this morning and Europe was flat, but investors in U.S. equities were ignoring all that in renewed hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, thus fueling asset markets with a new round of cheaper money. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.46% this morning, premarket. S&P 500 futures were up 0.25%, after the index closed up 0.98% on Friday.
Last week, Wall Street seemed to have decided that a December cut was off the table. On Wednesday, the CME Fedwatch futures index placed the probability of a cut at just 30%. JPMorgan published a note predicting a cut in January instead. Markets sold off dramatically. The S&P 500 lost 2% last week. Fears of a bubble in AI didn’t help, either.
Today speculators put the probability of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivering a rate cut at 75.5%.
What changed?
On Friday, New York Fed president (and FOMC vice chair) John Williams gave a speech in which he all but called for a cut next month:
