Newly elected Republican representative Matt Van Epps delivers his victory speech in Nashville, Tennessee, December 2, 2025. BRETT CARLSEN / AFP
Some victories are more reassuring for the losing side than for the winners. The election for a seat in the House of Representatives in Tennessee's 7th district on Tuesday, December 2, delivered the expected outcome: Republican Matt Van Epps took the overwhelmingly conservative and largely rural district, which includes Nashville and 13 counties west of the city. But the race, whose national significance was underlined by the attention it drew on all the news networks and among party leadership, sent a warning to the White House: Van Epps's margin of victory was just under 9 points over Democrat Aftyn Behn. In the same district just last year, Donald Trump had won by 22 points over Kamala Harris. His margin there was 15 points in 2020.
In the final stretch, both parties suddenly turned their focus to the campaign as polls showed a tightening contest. A last-minute push by conservative voters ultimately secured the win.
By Tuesday evening, Behn was already preparing for a rematch in next year's midterm elections. The lukewarm Republican victory sent an immediate message to all incumbents in Congress, especially those in more competitive, less rural and less conservative districts. They now face the threat of a large Democratic turnout, buoyed by a majority of independent voters, according to the polls. Trump nonetheless celebrated on his Truth Social platform, praising "another great night for the Republican Party."
